The Iran off-ramp now has a name and a date. Pakistan's prime minister said Washington and Tehran have settled on a "final, agreed upon text," dubbed the Islamabad declaration for Islamabad's mediating role, with a signing penciled for as soon as Sunday in Geneva between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Iranian state media put the terms at a 60-day ceasefire extension and the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, half up front, though Vance disputed that characterization and insisted no cash changes hands merely for signing. Markets ran with the de-escalation: WTI fell another 3.2 percent to $84.88 and Brent 3.4 percent to $87.33 as the Hormuz premium kept draining, the VIX dropped 9 percent to 17.7, and equities rallied broadly, the Nikkei up 2.8 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.2 percent, while a softer dollar and short covering lifted gold 3 percent and silver 6.2 percent. USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George H.W. Bush remain paired in the Arabian Sea, and the Europe-to-MENA resupply line still carries SENTINEL's heaviest airlift flag at eleven movements led by nine C-17As.
In a sharp departure from years of hostility, US Southern Command killed Hector "Niño" Guerrero, the 42-year-old founder of the Tren de Aragua gang, in what Trump called a kinetic strike coordinated closely with Caracas; Venezuela's government described a joint operation with US agencies in southeastern Bolivar state. It removes the man who grew Tren de Aragua from a prison gang into a hemispheric criminal network, even as USS Nimitz holds station in the Caribbean.
Ukraine pressed its campaign against Russia's energy backbone overnight, with the General Staff and SBU reporting strikes on an oil processing and pumping workshop near Kotovo and the Efimovka pumping station in Volgograd region, the Tamannaftogaz hydrocarbon transshipment complex and a marine oil terminal in Krasnodar's Temryuk district. The wider refinery and pipeline offensive is spreading gasoline shortages across more Russian regions; assault units also said they hit the Kulikovsky training range in Zaporizhzhia with ten drones and severed a pontoon bridge at Chongar feeding Crimea.
On the Lebanese front, the IDF issued displacement orders for more than ten locations including the city of Nabatieh and signaled it is poised to launch a ground push against Hezbollah; airstrikes killed the mukhtar of Rihan in the Jezzine district and at least two others, with the UN flagging fresh strikes on Lebanese hospitals, while an Israeli drone killed a municipality worker in Gaza's Bureij camp. SENTINEL's board is otherwise quiet: no compound alerts, a six-hull Atlantic tanker surge, and a single-pass thermal signature at the Nzilo hydroelectric plant in DR Congo (52 MW).