The two-day Gulf flare-up pulled back from the brink. Israel and Iran both said they had halted operations after President Trump told the two to "immediately stop shooting" on the war's 101st day, though Netanyahu stopped short of confirming a ceasefire and Tehran warned it would resume fire if Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon continue. Markets exhaled: WTI crude fell 2.6 percent to $88.97 and Brent eased to $92.24 as the Hormuz risk premium deflated and traders bet on gradually restored Gulf exports, while the Nikkei 225 rebounded 2.2 percent. SENTINEL still logged fresh overnight thermal anomalies in Iran's southwest, a 55 MW signature at an oil refinery in Khuzestan and a 60 MW hit at a 400kV substation farther south, consistent with the exchange before the guns quieted.
Lebanon is where the truce is fraying. An Israeli airstrike on Tyre killed five civilians including four Red Cross paramedics, part of a wider toll of at least 14 dead across southern Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed rocket and drone attacks on newly established Israeli positions at Maroun al-Ras and Qantara. In Gaza, strikes since Monday killed at least seven Palestinians.
Ukraine kept up its deep campaign against Russia's drone-production base. An overnight strike hit the Protasovo airfield near Ryazan, which hosts a research and production center for Shahed-type drones, more than 500 kilometers from Ukrainian-held territory. Russian fire answered with an attack drone on a Zaporizhzhia bus stop, killing two and wounding 15, and Peskov said negotiations were hard to imagine given Kyiv's "terrorist actions."
SENTINEL's board shows no compound alerts but four strategic airlift legs, heaviest an 18-movement Europe-to-North-America flow led by a dozen C-17As, with nine-leg flows on the MENA-to-Europe and North-America-to-Europe routes, plus a 16-hull Atlantic tanker surge; USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George H.W. Bush hold paired in the Arabian Sea within reach of the Gulf, USS Nimitz is in the Caribbean and USS George Washington in the Philippine Sea. Beyond the war zones, the WHO warns that a rare Bundibugyo Ebola strain, for which no approved vaccine or treatment exists, has reached 515 cases and 91 deaths in DR Congo across Ituri and the Kivus and crossed into Uganda.