The two-month Iran-Israel truce collapsed overnight. After Israeli jets struck a Hezbollah command center in Beirut's southern Dahiya suburb on Sunday, killing two and wounding eleven, Iran fired its first ballistic missiles at Israel since the April ceasefire, around 170 in successive waves by the IDF's estimate; the IRGC said it hit the Ramat David airbase southeast of Haifa and industrial sites in the port city, where a refinery was struck. Israel answered before dawn Monday with strikes across central and western Iran, hitting a petrochemical complex near Mahshahr in Khuzestan province. Yemen's Houthis piled on, launching a missile at Israel and declaring a total ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, while President Trump pressed both sides to stop shooting. USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George H.W. Bush remain paired in the Arabian Sea within reach of the Gulf.
Ukraine pressed its economic war on Russia's energy backbone overnight. Long-range drones set the Grushovaya oil depot near Novorossiysk ablaze, residents counting some 50 explosions over a tank farm of more than 1.2 million cubic meters that feeds the Sheskharis export terminal; Special Operations Forces separately struck an oil depot and marine terminal near Feodosia in occupied Crimea. ISW assesses Kyiv's intermediate-range strikes on Russian rail and road logistics in the occupied south are steadily degrading Moscow's supply lines. Russian fire killed at least one person and wounded eight in Sumy region, a drone hitting an apartment block in Konotop.
SENTINEL logs no compound alerts but five strategic airlift legs, the heaviest an eleven-movement Europe-to-North-America flow led by nine C-17As, running alongside an eleven-leg MENA-to-Europe lift and a nine-flight Europe-to-MENA push, plus a seven-tanker Atlantic surge; USS George Washington holds in the East China Sea and USS Nimitz is pierside at Kingston, Jamaica. The day's largest natural-disaster signal struck the southern Philippines, where a magnitude 7.8 quake off Sarangani in Mindanao killed at least 19 and triggered a tsunami warning with waves above one meter.
Markets caught the Gulf shock. The Nikkei 225 fell 3.85 percent while Brent crude leapt more than 4 percent above $97 on the renewed war risk and the continued near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even after OPEC+ approved another 188,000 bpd of July output. The moves extended Friday's Wall Street selloff, which left the S&P 500 down 2.6 percent and the Nasdaq off 4.2 percent.